Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.