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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.